Treasury
Robert Half's latest salary guide predicts that the average salary for new CFO positions in the United States in 2026 will increase by 0.6% year-over-year to $269,750, with senior CFOs earning up to $321,750 annually. Overall salary increases for finance and accounting roles are expected to be 2.1%, slightly below the August inflation rate.
Data released by The Conference Board on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in September, affected by persistent inflation, a softening job market, and concerns about the economic outlook. The proportion of consumers who believe jobs are plentiful dropped to 26.9%, while those who believe jobs are hard to get stayed at 19.1%. Inflation has once again become the primary factor influencing consumers' economic perceptions.
New York Fed President Williams said on Monday that the U.S. labor market is softening, while monetary policy remains in a restrictive range, exerting downward pressure on inflation. He also noted that tariffs have had less impact on inflation than expected, and core inflation is declining slowly. Cleveland Fed President Hammack and St. Louis Fed President Musalem expressed concerns about a rebound in inflation, advocating for maintaining a restrictive policy stance.
U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, matching July's pace, even as inflation stayed above the Fed's 2% target and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. Consumer confidence dipped due to price pressures and job market concerns, but some officials believe the economy remains resilient.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the central bank should place greater emphasis on solidifying the labor market rather than focusing solely on price stability, while also noting the dual risks of rising unemployment and higher inflation. Powell stated that tariffs, the highest since 1933, have pushed inflation up by about 0.4 percentage points, while average monthly job gains since June have been only 29,000. He acknowledged that "two-sided risks mean there is no risk-free path" and called for policy to shift from "fixating on inflation" to "a more balanced approach."
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan spoke at the Economic Club of New York on Monday, dismissing concerns about tariff-induced inflation and calling for two 50-basis-point rate cuts next quarter to prevent the unemployment rate from climbing. He argued that tariff revenue, tax policy, and immigration controls may have lowered the neutral rate, paving the way for rapid easing. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized that there is limited room for further easing.
A survey released Thursday by the Business Roundtable showed that the CEO Economic Outlook Index rose to 76, with capital expenditure plans rebounding, but hiring plans remained largely unchanged, reflecting continued labor market weakness. Meanwhile, a global survey by EY-Parthenon also showed a rebound in CEO confidence, with most planning to increase capital investment and focus on localization of operations.
The Conference Board reported on Thursday that current tariff levels are the highest since the 1930s, significantly dragging on the economy, and it expects GDP growth to slow to 1.6% this year. Its Leading Economic Index fell in August by the most since April, with components such as new manufacturing orders, building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, and consumer expectations all weakening.
At its September 17 meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, and released updated economic projections suggesting two more cuts may occur before the end of 2025. Fed Chair Powell noted that a cooling job market coexists with rising inflation, making policy balancing more difficult. Governor Miran dissented, advocating for a larger rate cut.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in August, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and exceeding market expectations. Despite a weak labor market and declining consumer confidence, categories such as e-commerce and apparel performed strongly. The Atlanta Fed raised its Q3 GDP forecast to 3.4%.