Treasury
Headhunter and compensation data show CFO pay continued to rise steadily in 2025, but the previously common 50% premium signing packages have notably declined. CFOs in the financial services sector earn the highest average annual salary at $1.5 million, while those in retail earn the lowest at around $800,000. Companies increasingly value operational and financial planning skills, with cash incentives replacing perks like remote work as the mainstream.
Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, higher than market expectations, but the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, the highest level in nearly four years. Meanwhile, employment growth data for July and August were revised down by a combined 33,000. Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes that the September employment data may overstate labor demand and does not constitute a reason against the Fed cutting interest rates. Fed officials are clearly divided on the policy path for December, and interest rate futures markets show a 60.2% probability of holding rates steady.
The Bank of America 2025 Business Owner Report shows that inflation has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for four consecutive years, becoming the top concern for small businesses. 70% of respondents view inflation as the primary risk, 64% have raised prices, and 77% report an average cost increase of 18%. Despite an uncertain economic outlook, 74% of businesses remain positive, 59% plan to expand, and 43% intend to increase hiring.
Kevin Carmody, senior partner at McKinsey, said that CFOs are placing more emphasis on downside risk protection when formulating 2026 budgets, including prudent investment, setting realistic goals, and addressing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
The New York Fed's November manufacturing survey showed that factory activity in New York State expanded at the fastest pace in a year, with growth in new orders and shipments as the main drivers. Despite signs of softening in the national labor market, local employment rose slightly and working hours extended. Businesses' optimism about the outlook declined from the previous month but still expected conditions to improve. Meanwhile, the federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data, and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Governor Waller expressed differing views on the policy path.
Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, stated that 55% of items in the CPI basket have annualized increases exceeding 3%, well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, which makes it difficult for the Fed to cut rates in December.
A survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since June 2022 in November, as the government shutdown heightened anxiety over inflation, the labor market, and the economic outlook. Expectations for personal finances plunged 17%, while expectations for business conditions over the next year dropped 11%. A New York Fed survey also showed that unemployment expectations rose for the third consecutive month in October to 43%, the highest level since April. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, but there is internal disagreement over whether to cut rates again in December.
A recent report from the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) shows that employer coverage of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs continues to expand, with 55% of employers covering them for diabetes and 36% covering both diabetes and weight loss. The proportion of large employers (5,000+ employees) covering weight-loss indications jumped from 28% last year to 43%. However, monthly drug costs can exceed $700, and treatment courses may last several years, sparking debate over the trade-off between short-term cost surges and long-term reductions in health spending.
ADM announced at its Q3 earnings call a reduction in full-year EPS guidance to $3.25-$3.50, citing the impact of evolving global trade patterns and delayed US biofuel policy on its agribusiness and oilseed operations. The CFO stated that the company is on track to cut costs by $200 million to $300 million, while the CEO emphasized that clarity on the details of the China-US trade deal and regulatory clarity on biofuel policy are key variables affecting commodity prices.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the consumer price index rose 3% year-on-year in September, slightly higher than August but below expectations. Core CPI was also 3%. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at both the October 29 and December meetings. Tariffs continue to push up core goods prices, while the slowdown in housing cost increases stands out as a positive.