Treasury
The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that job openings rose slightly to 7.3 million in July, the hiring rate declined, but the layoff rate remained stable, with the overall labor market showing a steady trend. Federal Reserve officials stated that the economy is growing steadily, and inflation remains the focus of policy attention.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said on Friday that to bring inflation back to the 2% target, the Fed may still need to 'act,' adding that current financial conditions are not 'restrictive.' This stance boosted market bets on a September rate hike, but EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco believes traders are overreacting and expects the Fed to hold steady for the rest of the year.
The US core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year in July, with stable inflation providing room for the Fed to hold rates steady at its September meeting. Although some policymakers are concerned about inflation, most officials lean toward waiting for more data.
The monthly survey released by The Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to 89.4 in August, declining for the second consecutive month, reflecting heightened pessimism among the public about employment, income, and business prospects. The report noted that high inflation, rising interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to squeeze household budgets, with middle- and low-income groups feeling the impact most acutely.
The WTW survey preview shows that employers may control the 2026 plan cost increase to 9.7% by reducing medical benefits, lower than the expected 11.1%. The survey found that nearly half of employers expect significant changes to medical programs in the next three years, but most are unwilling to take disruptive actions. Meanwhile, an Aon report shows that employee medical costs have doubled since 2022, with the average plan cost reaching $14,432 in 2026.
S&P Global's August composite PMI rose to 56, a 52-month high, as a strong services rebound offset manufacturing slowdowns caused by supply delays and inventory cuts. However, while the Conference Board's leading indicators edged up, consumer expectations continued to deteriorate, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index falling 8% this month and July retail sales down 0.6% month-over-month. Goldman Sachs expects real consumption growth to slow in the second half, but full-year GDP growth can still hold at 2.1%.
A report released Monday by HFS Research and TCS shows that among more than 100 C-suite and technology executives surveyed in the United States and Canada, only one-third believe AI can consistently deliver expected results and gain trust from all parties, one-quarter have the governance and control needed for expansion, and one-sixth trust autonomous AI to handle critical work. The report emphasizes that human intervention strategies and business-outcome-based evaluations are key to building reliable AI.
An EY-Parthenon survey found that 54% of US households saved no money last month, with one in five households spending more than their income and dipping into savings or borrowing. Inflation remains persistently high, gasoline prices have rebounded to $4.06 per gallon, and consumer confidence fell 8% this month.
Data released by the NFIB on Tuesday showed that US small business optimism rebounded in July after four consecutive months of decline, with the index rising to 99.8, the highest since August 2025. Twenty percent of surveyed businesses plan to expand hiring in the next three months, the highest level since October 2022. Meanwhile, concerns about labor quality have intensified, while inflationary pressures have eased somewhat.
As enterprises transition to real-time, data-intensive operations, finance and treasury executives face rising demand for transparency in payment and fund systems. Richard Dooley, Vice President of Product Commercialization at The Clearing House (TCH), states that reducing process friction and enhancing visibility are top priorities, while also warning of system resilience risks. He advises financial leaders to avoid being the "last mover" in industry innovation and points out that CFOs will play a key guiding role in the strategic adoption of new solutions such as blockchain-based payments.