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NABE Survey: Economists Expect Iran War to Push Up Inflation and Drag on GDP Growth

A survey released Thursday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) shows that the Iran war and other geopolitical conflicts are expected to slow economic growth this year and in 2027, and push up inflation. The survey was conducted in late March, as the war entered its fourth week, and surveyed economists lowered their expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts this year. The Federal Reserve's policy path faces uncertainty, with most respondents saying geopolitical risks have become the biggest threat to the U.S. economy.

Treasury
Tariff Refund Applications: Key Points and Strategies for CFOs

In February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that indefinite tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 are invalid, bringing new compliance clarity to businesses but also raising CFO questions about the refund process and potential financial impacts. Kristin Bohl, Customs and International Trade Partner at PwC, noted that the refund process could take months or even years, and CFOs need to plan ahead for impacts on tax, accounting, supply chain, and other areas.

Compliance
AI accounts for about a quarter of U.S. layoffs in March

U.S. layoffs in March rose 25% month-over-month, with AI becoming the largest single cause for the first time; the technology sector led with 18,720 layoffs, and developments at companies such as Dell, Oracle, and Meta are drawing attention.

Technology
ISM: Manufacturing expands for third straight month, input prices jump to highest since 2022

The ISM reported on Wednesday that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for a third consecutive month in March, but the index of input prices paid by manufacturers surged to 78.3%, the highest since June 2022. Among respondents, 64% of comments were negative, about 40% mentioned the Iran war, and 20% mentioned tariffs. Economists warned of upside risks to inflation, with the OECD forecasting overall inflation of 4.2% this year, more than double the Federal Reserve's target.

Treasury
Cybersecurity Increasingly Becomes a Core Issue for CFOs: Microsoft Perspective

Microsoft published a new article stating that cybersecurity is evolving from an IT technical issue into a financial risk, requiring CFOs to engage more deeply in cyber risk management. The U.S. recorded 3,322 data breaches in 2025, a 79% year-over-year increase; JLR's sales dropped by 43% due to a cyberattack. IBM data shows the average cost of a U.S. data breach reached $10.22 million, a historic high.

Compliance
Sokin's New CFO Focuses on North American Market Opportunities

Tom Steer, the new CFO of London-based cross-border payment company Sokin, said in an interview that there are "enormous opportunities" in the North American market. The company plans to increase investment in North America, leveraging the Series B funding completed in December last year (valued at $300 million) and the $100 million debt financing obtained in January this year, while advancing emerging payment solutions like stablecoins. Steer joined Sokin in October last year, having previously worked at fintech investment bank FT Partners.

Technology
CFOs seen as biggest internal threat to CEO job security

The "CEO Insomnia Index" report released by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) indicates that more than a quarter of CEOs (26%) view the CFO as the biggest threat to their job security within the C-suite, with the COO (24%) and CCO (20%) following closely. The report analyzes that the CFO's frequent interactions with the board make them a "natural successor" to the CEO, heightening CEO unease. Meanwhile, the trend of CFOs being promoted to CEO reached a ten-year high last year, with over 10% of new CEOs coming from finance executives.

Leadership
Consumer confidence edges up despite Iran war and higher oil prices

Despite the Iran war pushing up oil prices and fueling inflation concerns, the U.S. consumer confidence index rose slightly to 91.8 in March. However, the University of Michigan survey shows sentiment falling to a yearly low, with labor market indicators diverging, and economists warn that second-quarter spending could be restrained.

Treasury
AGI CFO Jim Rudyk to Step Down in May

Ag Growth International (AGI) announced on Monday that Chief Financial Officer Jim Rudyk will step down on May 8. This move follows the company's disclosure of a restructuring plan aimed at streamlining its executive team and adjusting its strategic direction.

Financial Reporting

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