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The latest Wolters Kluwer survey shows economists expect US GDP to grow 2.1% in 2025, above the Federal Reserve's estimated long-term trend of 1.8%, with only a 27% probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Several institutions have raised their growth forecasts, the labor market remains robust, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated no urgency to cut interest rates further.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the consumer price index rose 2.6% year-over-year in October, up from 2.4% in September. Housing costs rose 0.4% month-over-month, contributing to more than half of the overall increase. Despite the bumpy inflation path, interest rate futures markets still expect the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December to rise to 82%. Several Fed officials have expressed caution but believe inflation is moving in the right direction.
Researchers from Stanford University and the University of Chicago note in a new paper that because current merger review thresholds are based on asset value measurements under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which largely ignore intangible assets, hundreds of transactions each year, particularly in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, may go unreported to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ). The researchers estimate that if intangible assets were taken into account, the number of reported transactions would increase by approximately 263 per year.
The NFIB survey shows that small business optimism in October rose to its highest since 2022, but uncertainty hit a 51-year high. The election outcome may drive a further surge in the November index, but economists warn that the economy still faces multiple pressures.
Earned Wage Access (EWA) services allow employees to access a portion of their earned wages before payday, and their adoption has increased significantly over the past decade. Proponents argue that they help improve employee retention, reduce turnover costs, and serve as a safer alternative to payday loans. However, regulators are divided on whether they constitute credit, and the CFPB proposed a rule in July 2024 to treat EWA as consumer loans, drawing industry criticism. When considering implementing EWA, CFOs need to address regulatory uncertainty, third-party data security risks, and the potential impact of such services on employees' long-term financial wellness.
The rise of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has brought powerful, accessible, and scalable tools that can be exploited by fraudsters, leading to a range of cybersecurity issues from data breaches to malware, and resulting in various forms of theft. This article analyzes the current threat landscape of GenAI fraud through real-world cases and industry forecasts, and proposes defensive recommendations such as learning about technology, identifying vulnerabilities, training employees, cross-departmental collaboration, and sharing experiences to help enterprises mitigate risks.
Phillip Juhan, Chief Financial Officer of Trump Media and Technology Group (parent company of Truth Social), has adopted an SEC Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to sell approximately $13.4 million worth of company stock from this month through December 2025. The plan was filed with the SEC on November 5. Juhan plans to sell 400,000 shares, with Monday's closing price at $33.41. Previously, Juhan sold approximately $1.9 million in stock in August to pay taxes.
Trump's re-election as U.S. President may have far-reaching effects on the payment industry, including policy shifts at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), credit card interest rate caps, stablecoin regulation, and antitrust enforcement. Based on interviews with multiple lawyers, professors, and industry executives conducted the day after the election, this article outlines potential directions of change.
The University of Michigan's November survey shows that consumers' optimism about the economic outlook for the next six months reached its highest level since July 2021, with personal financial expectations rising by 6%.
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.5%-4.75%, with the decision approved unanimously. The committee stated in its statement that risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are 'roughly balanced.' Chair Powell said the economy and labor market remain strong but declined to comment on the election results. Markets are focused on potential inflationary pressures from Trump's tax cuts and tariff policies.