Treasury
A LiveCareer survey of 517 U.S. job seekers found that 64% believe their resumes can pass ATS screening, but only 10% think most applications will be viewed by recruiters; 57% have abandoned applications midway due to overly complex processes. Career experts advise job seekers to maintain confidence while urging employers to optimize processes and provide timely feedback.
A report from the Atlanta Fed shows that tariffs are driving businesses to raise price expectations, posing an inflation risk similar to a pandemic-era supply shock. The report states that businesses directly bearing the tariffs raised their annualized price increase expectations by 0.7 percentage points, while those indirectly affected raised them by 0.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September but warned that upside inflation risks remain.
According to the Conference Board, the consumer confidence index dropped 1.3 points to 97.4 in August, with perceptions of job difficulty rising to their highest since 2021 and income expectations deteriorating. Tariffs and inflationary pressures continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.
A survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) shows that 56% of economists expect inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, will not fall back to 2% until after 2027, up from 45% in the March survey. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, most respondents still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points before the end of 2025.
In a speech on August 22, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly indicated that, given the notable slowdown in the labor market since May, the Fed may lower its benchmark interest rate next month. He also noted that the price-boosting effects of tariffs are emerging, with upside risks to inflation still present, leaving policymakers facing a dilemma. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in September have risen to 85.2%.
S&P Global's purchasing managers index released on August 21 shows U.S. business activity expanding at the fastest pace since 2025, with both manufacturing and services strengthening, supporting expectations of 2.5% annualized GDP growth in Q3. However, tariffs are driving up costs and inflationary pressures, leaving the Fed in a dilemma ahead of its September policy meeting: whether to hold rates to curb prices or cut rates to protect employment.
The latest research from the San Francisco Fed, based on analysis of state unemployment insurance claims data, indicates that the U.S. labor market remained stable through mid-2025. Prior to the report's release, two Federal Reserve governors dissented against the decision to hold interest rates steady, advocating for rate cuts to guard against further labor market weakening.
The Conference Board said on Tuesday that as the US-China tariff war cooled, American consumers' pessimism about the future eased in May after rising for five consecutive months. The Consumer Confidence Index rose 12.3 points this month to 98, and the Expectations Index also climbed significantly, though it remained below levels that typically indicate sustained economic growth rather than a recession.
The S&P Global May survey shows that the US-China tariff pause agreement boosted US output, but business activity and expectations remain suppressed by tariff concerns, with price increases hitting a nearly three-year high. Economists warn the recovery may be short-lived, with EY-Parthenon expecting slower economic growth and a reduced recession risk of 35%.
Study: Invoice Rejection Rate Soars, May Serve as Financial Buffer for Companies Coping with Tariffs
The latest analysis by Finnish financial automation company Basware shows that the global corporate invoice rejection rate surged to 6.95% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 1.86% in the same period last year. The study, covering 272 million invoices, finds that the rise in rejection rates coincides with the timing of trade tensions caused by U.S. tariff policies, and that companies may be using delayed payments as a buffer against economic uncertainty.