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McKinsey's latest quarterly survey shows that, affected by persistent inflation and an uncertain economic outlook, American consumers are cautiously planning their holiday spending, with a quarter of respondents planning to reduce consumption, and the willingness to purchase non-essential and semi-essential items has notably contracted.

The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell for the second consecutive month in September, with job concerns and tariff-induced price pressures being the main drags. Long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, while the Federal Reserve faces dual challenges of inflation and employment, with the market expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2025; core CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a new high since October 2021. Analysts believe that tariffs are pushing up prices, while the risk of a weakening job market is rising, and the Fed may need to choose between stimulating the economy and controlling inflation next week.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Producer Price Index fell 0.1% month-over-month in August and rose 2.6% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target. Despite inflationary pressures from tariffs, the retreat in the PPI strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week. The market sees a rate cut on September 17 as nearly certain, with the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut by year-end rising to 73%.

The monthly survey released by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on Tuesday showed that small business optimism rebounded in August, mainly due to improved sales expectations and profit outlooks. However, the labor market continued to cool: the share of businesses reporting hiring difficulties fell to 32%, and the proportion of businesses hiring or attempting to hire dropped to 53%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that although overall business conditions have improved, labor quality remains the top issue facing small businesses.

According to a securities filing submitted by Dell Technologies CFO Yvonne McGill on Monday, she will step down from her CFO role but will continue working full-time until October 31. The company has appointed senior executive David Kennedy as interim CFO and has begun searching for a permanent successor. During her tenure, McGill drove the development of the AI business, but the company has faced pressure from declining profit margins.

The latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that August nonfarm payroll growth was far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, paving the way for a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. The probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut by the end of the year has risen significantly.

Stephen Milan, Chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, faced intense questioning at his Senate Banking Committee nomination hearing. Democratic lawmakers worried that, if confirmed as a Federal Reserve governor, he might succumb to political pressure from President Trump due to his planned return to the White House, undermining the central bank's independence. Milan insisted he would uphold monetary policy independence.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that job openings fell to 7.18 million in July, the lowest level since September 2024, while layoffs increased to 1.8 million, a 10-month high. St. Louis Fed President Musalem stated that recent data has heightened concerns about downside risks in the labor market. Policy uncertainty continues to affect corporate hiring decisions, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have risen to 95%.

The latest ISM report indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with weak output and employment indicators, but new orders improved slightly. Although price pressures eased modestly, they remain at high levels, presenting the Federal Reserve with a dilemma at its September policy meeting.